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Causal Loop Modelling

This module introduces you to an effective way to

integrate stakeholders’ diverse mental models and

perspectives – Creating platforms for discussion and

analysis using Causal Loop Diagrams (CLDs). Before

working through this module, it is recommended that

you read Chapter 4 of the ‘Systems Thinking for

Everyone’ book: “Discovering the big picture” (pp.

30 – 35).

Systems Thinking Tools

Other pollution

Service quality Agriculture

sources

Attraction of pollution

CB island

New construction

Biodiversity Infrastructure

Number of

Tourism

tourists Agriculture

pollution

Systems Thinking has a set of usefurle v‘etnuoeols’, e.g.

Tourism Access to

? Causal Loop Diagrams (CLD)

revenue market

Available

Investment in

underground

Waste agriculture

water ? Systems Archetypes (SA)

GDP per

Hotels and Information and

capita

? Bayesian BelieRfe sNtaueratnwts orks (BBN) communication

Use of

underground

water

? Evolutionary Learning Laboratory (ELLab)

Misuse of Livelihood of

? Sensitivity Mod Ne Rl (SensiMod) Commoner Food safety

NR conservation

Health

? Viable System Model (VSM)

Poverty

Life expectancy

Educated Immigration

Lack ?of IntSegtraotecd kpla nanningd Flow Diagrams

population

Population

? System Dynamics Modelling Student

population

Cultural

NGOs ? GoSveyrnnantcee graPtoiloiciens - and more…values

structure Social

issues

Tourism

People’s

development

awareness

? 3

Systems Thinking Tools

The systems tools that you are going to learn in this course

include those that can be used by EVERYONE – that is, you

? Causal Loop Diagrams (CLD)

don’t have to be an expert in the systems sciences. The

? Systems Archetypes (SA)

tools included in this course are those that you would find

? Bayesian Belief Networks (BBN)

most useful in your day to day management of complex

? Evolutionary Learning Laboratory (ELLab)

projects / issues of any nature and size:

? Sensitivity Model (Basis of Ecopolicy)

? Viable System Model (VSM)

? Causal Loop Diagrams (CLD)

? Stock and Flow Diagrams

? ? SysSteymst Deymnasm Aicrsc Mheodtyelpliengs (SA)

? Syntegration - and more…

? Bayesian Belief Networks (BBN)

? Evolutionary Learning Laboratory (ELLab)

? Sensitivity Model (SensiMod)

? Viable System Model (Introductory)

? Syntegration (Introductory)

Current Issues in the Media

? Economic Growth ? Climate Change

? Globalisation ? Carbon Emission

? Sustainability ? Water Shortage

? Social Dislocation ? Land Use

? Poverty ? Environment

? Human Health ? Biodiversity

? Animal Health ? Energy Crisis

? Food Safety ? Food Crisis

? Etc. ? Etc.

? 5

Current Issues in the Media

? These are some of the current headline issues that we

see/hear almost everyday in the media;

? The issues on the right column are mostly to do with the

ecological systems (the environment) while the issues on

the left column are to do with social-economic systems

(people);

? 6

Interconnected?

These issues are commonly dealt with in a ‘silo’/isolated

manner, however:

? They can not be regarded as single entities;

? There are close relationships between these issues.

? What are the relationships/interactions between these

issues/variables?

The Environment Loop

Land use

Water

R1

Deforestation Environment Economic Growth

Climate

Carbon

Modified from Maani and Nguyen (2009)

? We can use a tool of Systems Thinking (Causal Loop Diagram – which will be introduced shortly on the next few

pages) to develop a high-level systems model of the world issues;

? This model is the Environment Loop – you can see the relationship between each factor/variable;

? 8

Energy Loop Added

Land use

Water

R1

Deforestation Environment Economic Growth

R2

R2

Climate Energy

Energy

Carbon

Energy Use

Modified from Maani and Nguyen (2009)

? This model has the addition of the Energy Loop;

? You can see how the new Loop is formed with the addition of a new variable, namely ‘Energy use’

? 9

Population Loop Added

Population

Land use

Population

Water

R1

Poverty

Deforestation Environment Economic Growth

R2

R2

Climate Energy

Energy

Carbon

Energy Use

Modified from Maani and Nguyen (2009)

? This model has the addition of the Population Loop;

? You can see how the addition of the Population Loop has an impact/interaction with the other variables/factors and

Loops in the system;

? 10

Agriculture Loop Added

Food

Population

Agriculture

Land use

Population

Water

R1

Poverty

Deforestation Environment Economic Growth

R2

R2

Climate Energy

Energy

Carbon

Energy Use

Modified from Maani and Nguyen (2009)

? ‘Food’ is added into the Model to create an Agriculture Loop;

? The ‘high-level’ map/’big’ picture is getting more ‘complete’;

Biofuel Loop Added

Food

Population

Agriculture

Land use

Population

Water

R1

Poverty

Deforestation Environment Economic Growth

R2

R2

Biofuel Climate Energy

Energy

Carbon

R3 Energy Use

Biofuel

Modified from Maani and Nguyen (2009)

? A new loop (Biofuel Loop) is added to the model;

? You can see how ‘Energy use’ leads to an increase in ‘Biofuel’, subsequently ‘Land use’ and a chain effect on other

variables in the system;

? 12

An integrated Systems Model

Food

Population

Agriculture

Land use

Population

Water

R1

Poverty

Deforestation Environment Economic Growth

R2

R2

Biofuel Climate

Energy

Energy

Carbon

R3

Globalisation

Biofuel Energy Use

Modified from Maani and Nguyen (2009)

? We can now see how the factors/issues are interrelated; and ? ‘Globalisation’ is added to complete a high-level

how one action/decision could have an impact on the whole systems model of world issues (Dynamics of

system. Sustainability);

? 13

An integrated Systems Model

Food

Population

Agriculture

Land use ?

Population

Water

? ‘GlobalisationR1’ is added to complete a high-level map/systems

Poverty

Deforestation model ofE n tv hiro en m we ont rld issues (Dynamics of SustEacoinnoambic iGlriotwyt)h;

? We can see how the factors/issues are interrelated; and one

R2

action/decision could have an impact on the whole system.

Biofuel Climate

Energy

Carbon

R3

Globalisation

Biofuel Energy Use

Modified from Maani and Nguyen (2009)

? 14

Definition

S

Gov. support Employment

Lobbying S S Simulation as part of

framework S Engaging S Marketing opportunities core businesses

companies promotion S

S S Networking Resources S S S

S (human, financial) S S

Engagement S Dissemination

framework S S S

S Economic &

Community Funding social impacts Public S S

S of practice Investment Sustainability S S

S consciousness

Causal Loop Diagrams (CLDs) provide:

S S

S S Collaboration S Advisory team S S meO asu ut rc eo mm ee nts Patient cases S S S S Lin sk ti an tg e s &im nu al ta ioti no an l to

Common Access S policy

‘… a framework Ufsoer rfri esndelyeing interrelationships rather than Intl. & local

Cl &ar p i ft al ya

i

rt of no f

e

r g sm o sal IS

P

Ot sS wh nnei arnO

sh

pg

ip

ss h, oSfo tsr

’

.s e e i n O( o gnli n Ope) asys tte tm e R_r 7nS As

ut

hS o entf

ic

iR tc y_ h1 a C Con ull ra rg b ico urS e la ut

m

ivr eS aFe te Bd h 1b Ga ec rak Or

du

at th

e

an static Srec Sognition S R A_ cc4 redS

itation

S Technical & S S Positive/evident framework

Knowledge & competency

S Acceptance S S time concerns S outcomes Acknowledgment

Experience sharing

of cultural dif f. S R_8 S S R_6 PeS ter SeS nge (20S06) of SLE R_5

S Safe learning envi. S S Patient S

S O Simulation

S outcomes S Accountability

S S

Leadership CPD Training

Champions SDirection S

S

Effectiveness S CS ompetence Clinical S S S S S Pub eli xc p a ec cc te ap tt ioa nn sce & S

S practice Simulation in

S S S S healthcare embedded S R_3 S

Coordinated

Personal

simulation R_2

commitment

Eng la eg ai dn eg r l socal GoS

vernance

SS ResearS ch SInnovations EducS

ation Impact

S

Public S

awareness

S

Evaluation

Risk management

S

Basic Elements of Causal Loop Diagrams

(CLDs) - Variable

(adapted from Maani and Cavana, 2007)

A causal loop diagram has two basic elements:

? Variables &

? Arrows

? A variable is a condition, state, action, or decision

which can influence, and can be influenced by other

conditions, states, actions, etc.

? A variable can be quantitative (e.g., number of

employees, kilograms of production, business profit,

etc.) or it can be qualitative (e.g., values, motivation,

reputation, feelings, respect, etc. ).

? 16

Basic Elements of Causal Loop Diagrams

(CLDs) - Arrow

(adapted from Maani and Cavana, 2007)

? An arrow indicates a causal relationship or change in

the state of two variables.

? Bank balance Interest payment

? S (or +) indicates a change in the Same direction.

? O (or -) indicates a change in the Opposite direction.

(See pp 32 – 33, ‘Systems Thinking for

Everyone’ book for more information)

? 17

Interest payment

S (+)

Bank balance

O (-)

Expenditure

? 18

How to decide on the sign?

Higher Interest Higher Bank balance

S (or +)

Lower Interest Lower Bank balance

Higher Expenditure Lower Savings

O (or -)

Lower Expenditure Higher Savings

? 19

Feedback

(adapted from Maani and Cavana, 2007)

? Feedback is a process in which outputs from a system affect the inputs

? Feedback loops arise when a sequence of interactions form a closed loop:

? A-B-C-A:

B

A

C

? 20

Loop Types

(adapted from Maani and Cavana, 2007)

? Reinforcing Loop (R)

? Positive feedback

+

The R-loop represents growing or

declining actions

? Balancing Loop (B)

? Negative feedback (counteracting)

-

The B-loop seeks stability or return to control, or

aims for a specific target

? 21

Example of a Reinforcing Loop

(adapted from Maani and Cavana, 2007)

? A reinforcing (R) loop can be a ‘virtuous cycle’ as illustrated in this example;

? A ‘R’ loop can also be a ‘vicious cycle’ as described in the next example;

S

R

Interest Savings

Savings Balance payment Balance

S

Virtuous Cycle

Time

? 22

‘Quality Problem’ - A Vicious Cycle

(adapted from Maani and Cavana, 2007)

? Example of a ‘R’ loop as a ‘vicious cycle’

S

Incidence of

Poor Quality S

Hiding Errors / R Management

Mistakes Punitive Action

Quality

S

Vicious Cycle

Fear of Blame /

Punishment

S

Time

? 23

Example of Balancing Loops

? In this model, the three balancing (B) loops ‘counteract’ the impact of the

reinforcing (R) loop;

S

Attraction of CB

O

island Prostitution and

Biodiversity drug use

S

S

S

Number of tourists Link to Social

Pollution

Dev loop

B1

S

S

B3

S

R

Available Tourism revenue

underground water B2

Waste S

O

S S

Hotels and

Restaurants

Link to Eco Dev

Use of loop

underground water

S

Nguyen & Bosch (2013). Using Systems Thinking to Identify Leverage Points for Sustainability. Systems

Research & Behavioral Sciences, Vol.30, No.2, pp 104-115.

? 24

Differentiating between a ‘R’ and B’

(adapted from Maani and Cavana, 2007)

1. Using logic or intuition to identify the nature of the loop: growing

or declining action (R), counteracting process or seeking stability

(B).

2. Tracing the loop variable by variable: start and end with the same

verb (R), with the opposite verb (B).

Start from a variable with a verb (e.g. ‘increase’) and go around the loop until

you come back to this variable, if you end with the same verb (i.e. ‘increase’)

– it is a R loop, and if you end with an opposite verb (i.e. ‘decrease’) – it is a B

loop

3. Counting the number of ‘O’ (or ‘-’ sign) in the loop: zero or even

number (R), odd number (B).

(Note: counting the number of ‘O’ sign should be used to ‘double check’ the

confirmation of loop type (after doing # 1 and/or 2 above)

? 25

Rules for drawing CLDs

(adapted from Sherwood, 2002)

? Rule 1: Know your boundaries. Depending on the system of interest (e.g. if it is an individual

elephant, the boundary should be around a single elephant; elephants as social animals, the boundary is

the herd; elephant as part of the ecosystem, then the whole ecosystem of central Africa is the boundary);

? Rule 2: Start somewhere interesting. What are the key items/variables that relate to the

problems we want to solve?

? Rule 3: Ask ‘What does this drive?’ & ‘What is this driven by?’ Linking variables

together;

? Rule 4: Use nouns, not verbs. The use of a ‘verb’ will make it very confusing for you to

understand the loop;

? Rule 5: Don’t use terms such as ‘increase in’ or ‘decrease in’ This is the ‘job’ of the

arrows;

? Rule 6: Systems thinking looks ‘up’ and ‘out’, in contrast to the spreadsheet mentality that

looks ‘down’ and ‘in’. Building consensus on what makes most sense;

? Rule 7: Do the ‘S’ and ‘O’ as you go along This is to keep you ‘on track’ with a big model (it is

hard and confusing to put the signs in later);

? Rule 8: A good diagram must be recognised as real. A CLD should represent the ‘current’

situation;

Rule 9: Don’t ‘fall in love’ with your diagram. This is not ‘easy’ to avoid!

Rule 10: No diagram ever ‘finished’. Things keep changing and you can add to/refine your CLD

26

But, this might be too much!

A dynamic systems model of the Afghanistan conflict

The New York Times, April 26, 2010, retrieved from http://www.nytimes.com/2010/04/27/world/27powerpoint.html?_r=1

27

Causal Loop Modelling

Step1. Gathering mental models to identify variables for the sustainable

development of Cát Bà Island, Vietnam

Tourism revenue******* ? Services

NR conservation******* ? Infrastructure

Livelihood of Commoner ? Waste*******

Life expectancy ? Hotels , Restaurants*****

Governance structures*** ? Attraction of CB Island

Policies ? Access to markets

Poverty******* Waste ? Investment in agriculture Poverty

Educated population ? Information and communication

Lack of Integrated Planning****** ? Misuse of NR******

NGOs ? Health

People's awareness ? New construction

Social evils/crime ? Tourism pollution*******

Cultural values ? Agricultural pollution

Population******* ? Available underground water******

Immigration ? Number of tourists

Water

GDP per capita ? Other pollution sources Tourism

Tourism Development****** ? Use of underground water

Note: This is an example of the outcomes of a ‘face-to-face’ workshop conducted to identify the issues on Cát Bà

Island (Step 1 of the ELLab, which will be discussed in detail in Module 7).

? 28

Step 2: Move variables around until clear themes are appearing

Services

New construction

Tourism pollution Infrastructure

Waste Agricultural pollution Hotels , Restaurants

Tourism Development

Attraction of CB Island

Access to market

Number of tourists

Available underground water

Investment in agriculture

Other pollution sources

Information and communication

Use of underground water

Tourism revenue

GDP per capita

NR conservation

Agriculture revenue Food safety

Misuse of NR Health

Other income Sources

Life expectancy

Biodiversity Live lihood of Commoner

Poverty

Educated population

Governance structure

Population

Immigration

Policies

Student population

Cultural values

Lack of Integrated Planning

Social evils/crime

NGOs

People's awareness

? 29

Step 3: Systemic Structure (of Cát Bà Biosphere) after variables have been

linked with arrows.

For you: What are ‘missing’ from this model?

Other pollution sources

Service quality Agriculture

Attraction of pollution

CB island

New construction

Biodiversity Infrastructure

Number of

Tourism

tourists Agriculture

pollution

revenue

Tourism Access to

revenue market

Available

Investment in

underground Waste agriculture

water

GDP per

Hotels and Information and

capita

Restaurants communication

Use of

underground

water

Misuse of Livelihood of

NR Commoner Food safety

NR conservation

Health

Poverty

Life expectancy

Educated Immigration

Lack of Integrated planning

population

Population

Student

Cultural population

NGOs Governance Policies values

structure Social

issues

Tourism

).detacidni ton era s’O‘ dna ’S :rewsnA( People’s

development

awareness

Practical Exercises

1. Develop a CLD of your own ‘system’ (individual work)

E.g. A complex issue at work; a marriage and family life; an environmental

issue; your small business; ………..any ‘system’ that you want to improve or

think can be improved/enhanced.

2. Develop a CLD of a complex issue that your group would like to

solve and improve (group work)

For Educational Purposes you can use the ‘Vensim’ software free of

charge .