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ENVM Species Distribution Modelling Assessment Task

Task: Use a species distribution modelling program (MaxEnt) to predict the current distribution of a single species of mosquito, and the future distribution of the same species of mosquito under two di@erent possible future climate-change situations. Write a short scientific report based on this task.

You are able to choose one of the following two possible future climate-change situations to explore:

1.Compare predicted future distributions of one species of mosquito under di#erent climate change models (BCC vs Can; time window: 2041-2060; SSP:
SSP585)
or
2.Compare predicted future distributions of one species of mosquito under di#erent climate change scenarios (SSPs) (SSP1 vs SSP3, or SSP1 vs SSP5, or SSP3 vs SSP5; time window: 2041-2060; model: Canadian Earth System model)

Regardless of which option you decide to explore, the outcome of your modelling will be three maps. One map will show the ‘current’ distribution of the species (based on observations and climate data collected before the year 2000). The remaining two maps will show the predicted future distribution for two possible future climate-change situations that you explored.

You will need to write and submit a short scientific report based on your research and the results. The report should have the following format:

1.Title
2.Introduction
3.Methods
4.Results
5.Discussion
6.References

The report should be between 750 words and 1500 words long (not including references, but including figure captions). You should allocate approximately 1/3 of this word count to the Introduction, 1/3 to the Methods and Results, and 1/3 to the Discussion.

What to include in each component of your report:

Title
Make it ‘snappy’ and informative

Introduction
You will need to clearly describe the general problem and why it is important. You can use the following questions to guide the content and writing of your introduction:

-Why do we care about species distributions?
-How does climate a@ect species distributions?
-How might we expect climate change to a@ect species distributions?
-Why is it important to understand how climate change a@ects species distributions?
-Why is it important to generate di@erent predictions for the distribution of mosquitos in the future, based on di@erent climate models OR climate-change scenarios? What are these di@erent models or scenarios anyway? Can you provide context? What should a lay person understand about the models/scenarios you are focusing on so that they can be informed and understand the relevance/importance of your study?
-Why do we care about mosquitoes? Why do we care about the distribution of mosquitos? What would the benefits be of knowing how mosquito distributions might change in the future?

After you build your argument in your introduction for why your audience should care about your study, the last paragraph of your introduction should have relatively short (e.g. 1-3 sentences) and crystal clear statement of the aims of your study.

You should refer to and cite at least five contemporary (e.g. last ten years) published scientific papers to introduce your study.

Methods
You will need to write a clear and concise description of methods. Answer the following questions to guide the writing of your methods:

-Where did the observational data of mosquito occurrences come from?
-Where did the climate data come from? What climate variables are included in your models? Why might these climate variables be important?
-How was the future climate data generated? From which climate model(s)? For which SSP? For which time frame?
-What species distribution modelling method did you use to generate your current and future predicted distributions? In general terms, how does this method work? In general terms, how does this method turn observations and climate data into a prediction of a species distribution?
-What software did you use to implement your species distribution models? (you do NOT need to go into detail about the particular software settings that you used when implementing the model).

Results
You will need to write a clear written description of the results.

For this, you will need to write a description of the distribution of your species as shown in the maps you produced. In your descriptions you should explicitly include text that describes the broad di@erences between the current and future distributions, and between the two future distributions under the climate-change scenarios/models you explored. Remember, you can describe the distributions and comparisons in broad terms. For example, you can say things like: “The distribution of A. farauti is predicted to significantly contract under SSP8. Moreover, the distribution is predicted to shift from the north-east of Papua New Guinea more towards north-eastern Australia.” (This is a made up description that I am writing just to give you an example of the kind of form and level of detail required of the results section).

You will also need to include, as figure(s) your three maps and you should explicitly refer to these maps at the appropriate points (i.e. when you describe a particular part of the distribution of your species that is visualized by your maps) within the written description of your results. You will also need to include figure caption(s) that allow a reader to fully interpret the figure. Here is an example of a good figure caption: “Figure 2. A map of the predicted future distribution of A. hinesorum for the years 2041-2060 under SSP5 using the Canadian Earth System Model. Colours represent the probability of species occurrence.”

Discussion

1.Clearly answer the scientific question / address the stated aims of the study. For example, in the opening paragraph of your discussion you might consider including a statement such as: “I found that the distribution of A. farauti_4 is expected to move north with climate change, with stronger e@ects predicted to occur when using the BCC Climate System model when compared with the Canadian Earth System Model.”
2.Take a paragraph or two to discuss your results with respect to the potential climate change futures you explored. What are the implications of your results for the particular models (experiment 1) or SSPs (experiment 2) you explored?
How large was the di@erence in the predictions between the models/SSPs? Discuss!
3.Take a paragraph or two to discuss the implications of your results for human health and environmental management.
4.Use one paragraph to propose a VERY clear and specific direction for future research. We don’t want to see a bland or vague idea for future research. What specifically do you think it would be important to study to improve our understanding of the issues or questions raised by your study?

You should refer to and cite at least five contemporary (e.g. last ten years) published scientific papers to support the points raised in your discussion.

References
-you should refer to and cite a total of at least five contemporary (e.g. last ten years) published scientific papers to support your arguments in the introduction and the points raised in your discussion.
-provide a formatted list of the references you cite in your document. Any conventional and consistent referencing format is fine.

Grading:
The report will be worth 20% of the grade for this course.

Grading criteria for assessment task will be applied according to the dot points in each of the following ‘33% sections’ (below). Against each of the dot-pointed criteria you will be given a grade between 1 (low quality) and 3 (high quality), which will be summed (and scaled by each section, above) for your aggregate score.

33 % of the grade for this report will be allocated to the Introduction, and particularly with respect to the following components:
-description of the background to the problem. What is the general problem you are exploring and why is it important?
-clear statement of aims
-use of references as specified in the task description

33 % of the grade will be allocated to the methods and results, particularly with respect to the following components:
-clear and concise description of methods. Do not include every little detail
-clear written description of the results
-three maps, each with figure captions that fully explain what is being shown in the figures

33 % of the grade will be allocated to the discussion and references, particularly the following points:
-clearly answer the scientific question (i.e. address the aim)
-discuss implications of the results for human health, and for management of the environment and/or public health under future climate change. - describe one potential direction for future research
-use of references as specified in the task description.